“Absolute champion” Lennox Lewis predicts that the classic title unification match between Tyson Fury and Usyk will explode after the first 3-4 rounds. But punch statistics can predict a different scenario…
In an interview a few days ago, the most recent world heavyweight boxing “absolute champion”, Lennox Lewis, predicted the scenario of a classic belt unification match between Tyson Fury vs Oleksandr Usyk.
According to boxing monument Lewis, “it takes 3-4 rounds for Fury-Usyk to get used to each other’s fighting style, before starting to consider the punching situations that create the turning point in the match.” And “Usyk will be the one to take the initiative to strike first, although Fury continues to show his usual sass before the two enter the ring.”
That is the prediction from Lewis, who a quarter of a century ago defeated Evander Holyfield to become the “absolute champion” of the heavyweight division by unifying the three belts WBA, WBC and IBF.
But looking from Fury and Usyk’s punch statistics, is it necessary to wait for 3-4 rounds to see the “turning point” appear in the ring? And in which round will the classic fight taking place on May 18 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia really reach its climax?
Statistics on the number of punches Tyson Fury and Usyk threw in each round, in all matches since the beginning of 2018 until now – not counting wins that took place before round 6 – are clearly an important basis. Important to consider if you want to predict the scenario of the upcoming classic belt unification match.
During the above period, Tyson Fury fought 10 matches, of which 2 wins against Seferi (round 4) and Tom Schwarz (round 2) are not included. And Usyk fought 8 matches and of course won all 8.
Statistics show that on average, Tyson Fury threw 150.3 punches/match, while for Usyk, the figure was impressive because the 37-year-old Ukrainian boxer poured 198.1 punches/match on his opponents.
Looking at the statistics of the punches Fury and Usyk threw in each round, it’s easy to see the similarities in the first 3 rounds – just as Lennox Lewis predicted – and it’s easy to understand because of the cautiousness during this time. always placed first by boxers.
The total number of punches Fury threw in the first 3 rounds was 32.8, while Usyk was even less, an average of 31.9 punches. That means the first 3 rounds with 9 minutes of play in the upcoming classic title unification match are very unlikely to have situations where heavy blows create surprises. And the scenario where 1/2 boxers are counted by the referee, or the most shocking is the knockout blow, is extremely difficult to appear.
If the first 3 rounds are a “greeting and exploration”, the turning point may come in the next 4 rounds. The number of punches thrown by Tyson Fury in these 4 rounds was not too impressive, with an average of 14.4 punches/round 6 at most, but the 35-year-old British boxer had 2 knockout wins. technical out against Dillian Whyte (2022, round 6) and Deontay Wilder (2020, round 7) during this period.
As for Usyk, it is easy to see that after warming up, this very uncomfortable Southpaw boxer’s attack accelerated quickly, as evidenced by the fact that in the next 4 rounds he threw an average of more than 16 punches/round.
In particular, round 7 with an average of 19.8 punches was the round in which Usyk landed the most blows in about 3/4 of the fight, i.e. in 9/12 rounds.
That was also the time when Usyk won by knockout over Tony Bellew (November 2018) and forced Chazz Witherspoon to throw in the white towel and apologize (October 2019).
If the classic Fury-Usyk title unification match is forced to go all 12 rounds, which is likely to be the case, the punch statistics in the final 3 rounds would be a nightmare for Tyson Fury.
Because in these vital rounds that test his physical condition as well as his willpower, Usyk fights harder than ever, throwing 69.6 punches, an average of 23.2 punches/round, frequency. highest score in the match. For comparison, Tyson Fury’s average punching frequency during this period was only 12.8 punches/round, which is only 55% of Usyk’s punches.
Obviously, looking at that, we can clearly see the “falling point” of Usyk’s strength. In other words, Usyk always knows how to torture his opponents at times when many boxers have lost strength. This is exactly like the information shared recently that “Usyk punched harder and harder and completely overwhelmed when he blew away all 5 sparring fighters, who were nearly 2m tall or even 2.06m tall like himself.” Fury”.
So, can Tyson Fury avoid the ending of being “physically tortured” in the final rounds by finding the decisive blow to resolve the classic title unification match in the middle of the match? Let’s wait and see…!
